Is there an answer to Syria's problems?

 

As the UN Security Council struggle to see eye to eye, are there any possibilities for resolving Syria?

As the Libyan freedom fighters and the National Transitional Council prepare for life post-Gaddafi rule, it is time to reflect upon the issue of intervention. Almost six months on since the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973 was put into practice, we finally see Gaddafi on the run and with him the suppression allowing for a future of hope. As things begin to smooth out political eyes of the West stretch their gaze towards Syria and the ongoing demonstrations for democracy. There are many calls for intervention in Syria however will the chance for further intervention ever occur and who is capable of leading such an effort?

Currently a European backed resolution drafted by the French has been put to the UN Security Council which as French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe suggested on Friday September 2^nd that is “our objective to obtain a resolution at the Security Council condemning the use of violence against civilians and organising a regime of sanctions”. However, of the 15 members of the council, it is likely that Russia and China will use their vetos against the resolution despite it not calling for military action as the believe the UNSC needs to encourage negotiations instead of aligning to either side;

“We are proposing that the UN Security Council firmly demands that all parties to the conflict respect human rights and begin talks,” said the Foreign Minister for Russia, Sergei Lavrov.

“If it’s up to the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China), the Libyan scenario won’t be repeated”.

The rejection and blocking of resolutions against Syria by Russia and China could be interpreted as either a backlash against the milking of the resolution on Libya “to protect all civilians” which turned into a bombing campaign against any pro-Gaddafi threat, or simply the Russians and Chinese taking a tougher stance on their non-intervention style foreign policy.

Hillary Clinton, U.S. Secretary of State, has urged all deciding countries to impose more sanctions on the government of Syria, saying that more demands were needed to force him to step down.  Due to the recent respective failures of economic sanctions, it does appear that these sanctions will only force the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to become yet more defiant and that perhaps the backers of the resolution are only taking the necessary steps needed before intervention merely hoping that he will step down at the whim of international economic suppression.

However as Western powers shy away from military intervention it appears that economic sanctions may be the best option, this being the case if particular attention is paid to Syria’s money-spinning oil and gas industries. It is important that if economic sanctions are to work that there is a clear path ahead for when and how these sanctions will be lifted. If the incentive can encourage political transition even at least to a multi-party system and election overviewed by an international organization, then Turkey will be a key economic partner for Syria’s future. Turkey have the goal of being a key Middle-Eastern player in mind and will try to act within the interests of the region whilst also holding the hand of the West. A tricky game of relationships for Turkey to handle but if successful will give themselves and the Middle-East new realms of respect and opportunity.